The UK's Crazy Crime Statistics
Is it really getting worse?
With the UK General Election coming up, I keep hearing people mention rising crime — but is it actually rising?
And should we be worried?
Let’s dive in…
Crime Has Increased
It is true that since 2014, crime has been steadily increasing in the UK, across England & Wales (where I live).
That’s the red line.
Of course, it’s a blip for the lockdown year between 2020 & 2021 — that explains it going down somewhat. But if that was omitted as the ‘force majeure’ that it was, then it’s been getting worse for a while.
The UK’s Crazy Crime Statistics
In the ONS’s latest report on crime:
Offences involving firearms have increased by 9%
Offences involving knives have increased by 7%
Robbery increased by 13%
Theft increased by 18%
Shoplifting increased by 37%
That’s not to mention the 21% increase in Drug offences which aren’t included in the crime statistics — because the ONS marks them down as “victimless” crimes.
Let’s Talk Murder
In fact, the only thing that decreased was homicides.
From 616 in 2022, to 577 murders in 2023.
You could potentially argue that the medical system saves knife & firearm victims from becoming homicide victims — which could, in part, explain a decrease.
You could also argue that as homicide carries the largest penalty, it could have a lower recidivism rate based on the fact they’re still locked up (if caught). Whereas people getting ‘stabby’ to steal a watch may still be out… Stabbing some more.
Sexual Assault — And How Data Lies
The ONS also reported sexual offences decreased by 2%.
But wait…
If you look closer, in a note on their page, they say:
“The crime survey estimates for domestic abuse and sexual assault for the year ending March 2023 are based on eight months of data collection because of an error in the survey, which resulted in missing data.”
What’s scary is that even with that missing data, it’s still 17% higher than it was in 2020.
Hide your kids. Hide your wife.
Okay… So How Likely Are You Robbed?
I wrote this post mostly out of curiosity.
Before I go to bed each night, my wife asks me again & again if I’ve locked the doors & turned the alarm on.
For many people, the idea of someone breaking into your home, especially while you’re sleeping, is one of the most harrowing experiences you could ever go through.
In 2023 the number of homes burgled was around 390,000.
That’s over 1,000 per day.
But if you weren’t at home, maybe walking the streets of the UK with a nice watch, the statistics get much worse.
Instances of theft are in the millions. This means that based on population size, you have an estimated 1 in 25 chance of being stolen from this year.
Unless the crime figures go up of course — like they have been doing. In which case, we should probably all just stay indoors.